Previous Year Question
Consider the following countries.
Italy
Japan
Nigeria
South Korea
South Africa
Which of the above countries are frequently mentioned in the media for their low birth rates, or ageing population or declining population?
1, 2 and4
1, 3 and 5
2 and 4
3 and 5
Correct Answer: A
Detailed Solution
Country | Demographic situation | Conclusion |
1. Italy | Extremely low fertility, fewer births and an ageing population | Correct |
2. Japan | Long-term population decline and a very high elderly population share | Correct |
3. Nigeria | High fertility and a young, growing population | Incorrect |
4. South Korea | One of the world’s lowest fertility rates and natural population decline | Correct |
5. South Africa | Despite declining fertility, the population is still growing | Incorrect |
1. Italy
Italy has long been experiencing low births, low fertility and population ageing.
Italy’s total fertility rate in 2024 was only 1.18 children per woman.
Approximately 369,944 children were born in 2024, around 2.6% fewer than in 2023.
The number of births in Italy has declined continuously since 2008.
Along with low fertility, the number of women of reproductive age is also declining. This produces a double negative effect on future births.
Therefore, Italy is correct.
2. Japan
Japan is a leading example of low births, extreme population ageing and continuous population decline.
On 1 October 2024, Japan’s total population was approximately 123.8 million.
Its population declined by approximately 550,000 in one year.
This represented the fourteenth consecutive year of population decline.
Approximately 36.2 million people were aged 65 or above, accounting for 29.3% of the total population.
Population declined in 45 of Japan’s 47 prefectures during 2024.
Therefore, Japan is correct.
3. Nigeria
Nigeria’s demographic situation is the opposite of that of Italy and Japan.
Its total fertility rate in 2024 was approximately 4.4 children per woman.
It has a relatively young population that is still growing rapidly.
Nigeria is, therefore, not normally identified as a country experiencing very low births, population ageing or population decline.
Therefore, Nigeria is incorrect.
4. South Korea
South Korea is among the countries facing the world’s most severe low-fertility conditions.
Its total fertility rate in 2024 was only 0.75 children per woman.
Approximately 238,300 children were born in 2024.
Approximately 358,400 deaths occurred during the same period.
Consequently, natural population change—births minus deaths—was approximately –120,000.
Thus, despite a small annual increase in births, fertility remained far below replacement level and natural population growth remained negative.
Therefore, South Korea is correct.
5. South Africa
South Africa has experienced a long-term fall in fertility, but it is not yet in the same demographic situation as Italy, Japan and South Korea.
Its total fertility rate in 2024 was approximately 2.2 children per woman.
This was substantially higher than the rates of South Korea, Italy and Japan.
Its total population is still growing, and its age structure is younger than that of these three countries.
Therefore, South Africa is incorrect.
Core concept
Replacement-level fertility in a developed, low-mortality population is generally around 2.1 children per woman.
If fertility remains below this level, the proportion of children and young people begins to decline.
Subsequently, the working-age population contracts and the proportion of elderly people rises.
When deaths exceed births, the country experiences natural population decline.
However, low fertility and actual population decline are not identical because immigration may temporarily prevent the total population from falling.