Previous Year Question
Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development:
Low birth rate with low death rate.
High birth rate with high death rate.
High birth rate with low death rate.
Select the correct order of the above stages using the codes given below:
1, 2, 3
2, 1, 3
2, 3, 1
3, 2, 1
Correct Answer: C
Detailed Solution
Demographic transition describes the transformation of a society from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as it undergoes economic and social development.
During this transition, the death rate generally declines first, while the birth rate declines after a time lag.
Therefore, the correct order is:
High birth rate and high death rate → High birth rate and low death rate → Low birth rate and low death rate
That is:
2 → 3 → 1
Analysis of the stages
Order | Number in question | Birth rate | Death rate | Population growth |
First stage | 2 | High | High | Low or fluctuating |
Second stage | 3 | High | Low | Very rapid |
Final stage | 1 | Low | Low | Low or nearly stable |
First stage: High birth rate and high death rate — Statement 2
This is associated with a pre-industrial or relatively underdeveloped economy.
Reasons for the high birth rate:
Greater demand for labour in an agrarian economy
Early marriage and limited female education
Limited availability of contraception
Desire for more children because of high infant mortality
Dependence on children for old-age support
Reasons for the high death rate:
Epidemics and infectious diseases
Malnutrition and famine
Unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation
Limited medical facilities
High infant and maternal mortality
Because both birth and death rates are high, natural population growth remains low and unstable.
Second stage: High birth rate and low death rate — Statement 3
At the beginning of economic development, mortality declines rapidly, while traditions concerning family size and reproductive behaviour change more slowly. The birth rate therefore remains high for some time.
Reasons for the decline in mortality:
Improved food supply and nutrition
Clean drinking water and sanitation
Vaccination and disease control
Expansion of medical facilities
Reduction in infant and maternal mortality
The gap between birth and death rates is widest during this stage. Consequently, rapid natural increase and a population explosion may occur.
Final stage: Low birth rate and low death rate — Statement 1
With industrialization, urbanization and social development, the birth rate also declines.
Reasons for the decline in the birth rate:
Female education and employment
Increase in the age of marriage and first childbirth
Availability of contraception
Decline in infant mortality
Higher cost of raising children in urban areas
Acceptance of the small-family norm
Development of old-age social security
As both birth and death rates remain low, population growth becomes slow or nearly stable. In some developed societies, below-replacement fertility may also produce population ageing and natural population decline.
Origin of the model
American demographer Warren Thompson provided an early formulation in 1929.
Frank Notestein systematized the concept in 1945.
It is a general descriptive model; every country does not move through the stages at the same speed or in an identical manner.